The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of May 26 – May 30

 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
Tu
May 27
08:30 Durable Goods Orders Apr –1.3% 2.9% Moderate
Tu
May 27
10:00 Consumer Confidence May 82.7 82.3 Moderate
Th
May 29
08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 5/24 318K 326K Moderate
Th
May 29
08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 5/17 2.650M 2.653M Moderate
Th
May 29
08:30 GDP – 2nd Estimate Q1 –0.5% 0.1% Moderate
Th
May 22
08:30 GDP Chain Deflator– 2nd Estimate Q1 1.3% 1.3% Moderate
Th
May 29
10:00 Pending Home Sales Apr 1.0% 3.4% Moderate
Th
May 29
11:00 Crude Inventories 5/24 NA –7.226M Moderate
F
May 30
08:30 Personal Income Apr 0.3% 0.5% Moderate
F
May 30
08:30 Personal Spending Apr 0.2% 0.9% HIGH
F
May 30
08:30 PCE Prices – Core Apr 0.2% 0.2% HIGH
F
May 30
09:45 Chicago PMI May 60.8 63.0 HIGH
F
May 30
09:55 U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final May 81.4 81.8 Moderate

>> Federal Reserve Watch

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months… There’s a little more talk now about the Fed raising the Funds Rate, but most economists do not expect a hike any time soon. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jun 18 0%–0.25%
Jul 30 0%–0.25%
Sep 17 0%–0.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: Consensus
Jun 18      <1%
Jul 30      <1%
Sep 17      <1%

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